SEC Stat Cat
Alright! We made it. Pat yourselves on the back; and if you haven’t already done so, treat yourself to a nice cool beverage. Who cares if kickoff isn't for a few more weeks!? There’s football later this month, and you should treat yourself for surviving another off-season.
In case you didn’t know what this article is all about, the title says it all. As someone who has personally charted every offensive snap in this conference since 2018, I like to think I have a unique perspective when it comes to discussing schemes. Not only do I have receipts on what works, I have the capacity to measure recent performance against some historical trends. So with that in mind, let’s dive in and see one concept each SEC offense should feature this upcoming season!
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After a year of dormancy on the call sheet, Alabama’s affinity for empty formations re-emerged and outshined every other SEC offense last year. Along with leading the league with a 10.2% Play Pie and 8.3% Yard Pie, both their Passing and Rushing Success Rate topped the 53% threshold. Though Milroe’s departure will affect the volume of spread runs, there’s no need for Coach DeBoer and Co. to scrub empty sets from their scripts. I think they should do quite the opposite. This staff – now including Ryan Grubb – has an excellent track record for coaching their QBs to carve out underneath completions with cerebral play. In 2024, Hoss+Juke and Stick Variations combined for over a 65% Success Rate alone from these sets. Along with some Spot concept wrinkles and usual outlet screens, Ty Simpson should have a healthy diet of these looks.
Okay, this suggestion isn’t that next-level. Far from it, fact. Inside Zone Bluff Read was Arkansas’ most repped play in meaningful minutes, top yardage gainer, and favorite play to start a set of downs last year. It showed up at least once in every game. Outside of garbage time, no look with at least 12 tries bested its 66% Success Rate. Plus, none of their core runs produced a preferable Y/A than its 7.2 clip. Essentially, a quarter of its runs went for at least ten yards. And bucking the recent RPO movement, Arkansas rarely tagged receiver routes, preferring the old-new school approach with just straight read options. Maybe that aspect changes a little to help create more defensive stress and pitch-and-catch chances. But all else considered, no need to tell Bobby Petrino to change things up in this regard.
Over 11% of Auburn’s total plays last year incorporated at least one slant route. Hugh Freeze enjoyed tagging it on the backside of zone-beaters like Spot, Stick, and Spaces. But primarily, slants showed up the most in the RPO game. But Slant Variations were only targeted on 37% of the patterns in which they were featured. Not exactly a high usage considering these tries have generated a +53% Success Rate back-to-back seasons. Though you never want to force the issue, these simple man-beaters will help incoming passer Jackson Arnold develop quick connections with his new weapons, practically speaking. Passing downfield presently isn’t a strength of his. So leaning into set-ups where he can play hot potato to help Cam Coleman or Eric Singleton do their thangs ought to be encouraged. And for what it’s worth, Arnold posted a 48% First Down+TD Rate targeting Slant Variations despite seeing over a quarter result in a drop.
The Bayou Bengals have struggled to generate consistent, explosive gains on the ground from their running backs in recent years. While it remains to be seen how capable the new group up front will be paving run lanes, opponents will most likely lean into stopping Garret Nussmeier and his speedy wideouts first – and rock 2-high safety structures. Though some would say lean into the short game, the Tigers have enough teeth to play with extra aggression offensively. And the Dagger concept allows them to hunt for explosives while naturally stressing middle-open defensive coverages. Last year, LSU called it in some shape or form 37 times, with 23 outright targets – the 5th-most of any pass in meaningful minutes. Dagger’s best showing was against Ole Miss, with some aid from modern set-ups. But over half of its targets overall as well on 3rd down moved the chains; and over a quarter resulted in at least a 20 yard gain.
Ole Miss had a shallow but wide run game last year. Only two concepts (Duo Dive and Y-Insert) in meaningful minutes were repped at least 20 times; and the next look up were their direct snap plays. But only 54% of their runs were composed by their top5 core concepts, 3rd-lowest in the SEC. Simply put, this scheme failed to develop a dependable tertiary look in its repertoire and threw a bunch of stuff at the wall as a result. Due to the new elements in the starting lineup and to give the ground game more diversity, Bash Counter Reads ought to be seen in every game - whether the straight or toss variety. In 2022, both topped a 50% Success Rate on 53 combined tries. No one in the league came close to matching their usage. But perhaps in an effort to reduce dings to Jaxson Dart, Bash plays have diminished each of the last two seasons (38 in 2023, 16 in 2024). Getting back to featuring this slight misdirection with regularity could be what this rebrand needs to start on the right foot.
Jeff Lebby had a number of peculiar wrinkles and clever counters in his debut offense at Miss State. But none were particularly repped at enough volume to convince anyone he was onto something. Still, there were some silver linings in his run game when it came to split zone looks. Granted, they didn’t get featured until Michael Van Buren was behind center, and Blake Shapen is back to being the captain now. But the Bulldogs saw both the read and straight-give varieties, with and without motion help, top a 50% Success Rate despite only 1/3 keepers working. No other run concept sported a clip north of 48%. Miss State Lebby likes ‘balanced’ run scripts, and upping the usage of split zones not only will allow him to accomplish that but also complement the rest of his scheme nicely.
Colin Klein did a tremendous job in his first season in College Station providing a new identity to the Aggies’ offense and orchestrating some consistent production. However, potency - especially around the run game - was lacking. But Marcel Reed undeniably showed off juice with the ball in his hands. Even with a wonky sample, he logged TAMU’s 2nd-most explosive runs on designed carries on a team-high 23% clip. Common sense says spam that stuff. But only two concepts were responsible for multiple splash runs, and both were read options, which cannot ensure a Reed keeper. IZ Bluff Read saw the 3rd-most reps of any concept. So it’s a safe bet it will remain on the Aggies’ script. But Bash Counter Read could stand to be seen more. Normal Counter looks had 50 snaps and a 7% play share in meaningful minutes. But only 10 Bash varieties were tried. Along with providing Reed with more opportunities to follow lead blockers, it further rounds out TAMU’s balanced, yet conventional core run concepts.
No SEC offenses targeted True Screens as much as the Dawgs did last year. In fact, both Convoy Screen and Swing Screens (embeds with three-man combos as well as traditional outlets) each drew at least 24 targets in meaningful minutes and finished among Georgia's core pass concepts last fall. Across both the Monken and Bobo Eras, Kirby Smart’s offenses tend to give its passers plenty of layups and gimmes with scheme elements. And if abundant screen usage is bound to continue, the Dawgs shouldn’t be shy to respond when opponents key hard on throws behind the line of scrimmage. After all, they are coming off a season that fully endorses more fake screens moving forward. More were featured this past season than the previous two combined. Plus, Fox patterns rocked a 70% Success Rate and 12.7 Y/A in meaningful minutes. Half of those completions birthed an explosive gain.
League-wide, Blazer patterns are becoming more and more popular. I wrote as much this time last year. And in regards to Florida, 8/9 found success while generating 222 yards in meaningful minutes - the most of any pass concept. Billy Napier’s attack is quite complimentary schematically. And how Blazers have been utilized is just the latest example. Pistol set-driven runs and at-snap motions invite more single-high defenses, weakside floods and crossers are dialed up to win across the field, and peak posts are applied to further stress out safeties. Blazers then include a feigned inside path to catch the eyes of a couple of defenders before working back outside. All the while from the other side of the formation, the post bends and splits deep coverageman to open space. Sound strategery indeed. DJ Lagway won’t mind pushing the pill and stretching the field. And, expanding the Gators’ downfield offerings with more variety ought to help him maintain envious verticality.
Even on their best day, the Wildcats’ offense was predominantly mild under Bush Hamdam last year. Along with sporting the SEC’s bottom3 Success Rate overall, constantly throwing crap at the wall resulted in UK’s core concepts only accounting for 43.5% of their playcalls, which also was the 3rd-lowest mark in the SEC. The pass game’s woes were especially problematic. But one concept stuck and consistently provided value: Sail. Targeted in 10/12 games, its 58% Success Rate was the highest of any pass concept. And despite UK’s ground-and-pound M.O., no concept gained more yards in meaningful minutes than its 219. Off play action, Sail rocked a 8.8 Y/A. And on delayed rollouts (Dash), 3/4 tries were completed to net a 14.3 clip. UK’s “Spring Showcase” wasn’t a major indicator how the Cats plan to play this fall. But I’d be remiss if I didn't mention how visible this strongside flood pattern was that morning, across all strings of the offense. So either a happy accident, or Hamdam is already way ahead of me about featuring it more this fall.
Though Eli Drinkwitz should (and will) predominantly ride Off-Tackles to glory, the Tigers would be wise to sprinkle in more easy wins against light boxes via QB Draw RPOs. In this analyst’s opinion, had Missouri not been bailed out by a number of successful ones in the back half of 2022, the program would be in a much different state than it is today. Along with boasting a double-digit Y/A, the look finished among the offense’s 5-most successful concepts that season. Yet, volume of these plays continued to dip, from 32 in 2022 to 20 in 2023 to 15 last year, where only 10 resulted in a keeper in meaningful minutes. Still, six were successful across a 9.3 Y/A, which was over a yard more than any of their core pass concepts. Beau Pribula is a bit of an unknown. But the consensus is he can move fairly well. And pairing easy horizontal outlets with chances to get north and south in a hurry could provide the Tigers a decent down-to-down floor when not directing handoffs to the perimeter.
While I am sure the Sickos would like to see the Gamecocks bust out more triple options or continue to pester defensive flanks with slide/flat RPOs, I’m calling for a more pugnacious approach: hammer LaNorris Sellers into the boundary behind down blocks and pullers. South Carolina called 21 combined Pin/Pull Bases, Buck Sweeps, and G-Down runs for their hoss; and he yielded a cool 7.0 Y/A and 62% Success Rate. A third gained at least 10 yards. Three-fourths of these snaps occurred over the last 6 games, implying the staff is more than comfortable turning to them when needed. Though certainly not an every down or every series kind of thing, outright ignoring ways to get Sellers to space would be pretty irresponsible.
Over the last couple of year’s, Josh Heupel’s Veer and Shoot hasn’t exactly experienced smooth skies. While operating as one of the least explosive passing units within the SEC, both of their most-recent starters finished at or near the bottom in the league in Deep Uncatchable%. Captain Obvious wanted me to remind you: Explosives come much easier through downfield dingers than screens and short stuff reliant on after the catch production. A failure to hit on those clearly hurt the entire operation. However, the call sheet can also explain some things. Tennessee has not shown as much shine towards its beloved Switch Variations of late. Since 2022, snaps have slunk down from 66 to 49 to 40. Additionally, targets in meaningful minutes have dipped from 40 to 28 to 15. Yet, the concept has generated a +12.0 Y/A in that span and has netted a 63% Success Rate the last two seasons, making it among the scheme’s top5 best looks. Make Rocky Top Explosive Again.
Clark Lea and his cohorts won quite a bit in the margins last year. And while some seldom-seen wrinkles flashed occasionally, the ‘Dores overly rode their bread and butter concepts. Split Zone looks ought to remain atop the script; and kooky curveballs will again be tried sporadically. But there’s plenty of room for G-Down to get more reps moving forward. The playside fold was this offense’s 5th-favorite and 6th-most productive concept. Along with rocking the best Y/A, Success and Explosive Run Rates among Vandy’s core runs, it was the only ground concept with at least 14 snaps to see over half its tries work. Plus, Diego Pavia popped off 2 big gainers on his 5 such tries. Pump up the volume.
In this summer’s Impact Study - where I chart the nation's top returning passers against their hardest opponents - Washington State averaged featuring about two QB Draw RPOs per game. And even heightened competition couldn’t stop John Mateer from a double-digit Y/A on these looks. While donning a 58% Success Rate, only one other concept produced more yards in these games. Though the Cougars favored tagging swing screens, the swashbuckler’s comfortability with other quick game staples makes me want to see a blend at his new locale. If the Sooners were to feature Stick, Ohio/Slice, or Slant Variations, (concepts Mateer found success on at least half the time) rather than things behind the line of scrimmage, not only would it raise their down-to-down floor when attempting to maximize their QB1 but also provide some carryover for their new playmaker.