SEC Stat Cat
Just in time for when temperatures are at their hottest, Summer’s Talking Season delivers no shortage of scorching takes and opinions around the top returning football players. No doubt, things certainly can get a little heated discussing QBs.
From seasoned veterans returning for a final shot at glory to breakout stars lighting up the stat sheet, this year’s crop is diverse and divisive. You could poll 10 different analysts and get back 10 completely different lists regarding their premier passers. Still, the consensus has identified roughly a dozen or so guys who have real next-level aspirations.
Instead of citing counting stats and reading box scores, I personally charted each QB against their hardest defensive opponents yearning to find if they have traits that translate or advanced metrics that matter. The yearly “Impact Study” has a solid track record for vetting difference-makers and offensive executives alike. Though not a perfect exercise due to different degrees of difficulty, it’s still much better taking stats as is that have games versus Poop State on the slate. And, most people care more about “good-on-good” than bufu’ing bad secondaries.
This piece will solely focus on the single most important aspect to fix/address for each of our 44 QBs in this year’s study – honing in on the back-half of the list.
21. Haynes King: Downfield Accuracy
King still needs to fix the kinks in his delivery that has hurt his downfield precision across his career. Perhaps a weird request considering his Completion% is one of the highest around. His release isn’t as wonky as it used to be, but no one would call it textbook. Scheme and operation did a fantastic job cloaking him as a passer to where his erraticism was completely neutralized. Almost a third of his throws against the meat of his schedule targeted behind the line. He hardly had to press and never had to force the issue, routinely taking profits to support Tech’s run-the-damn-ball approach. King clearly can do damage horizontally. But his ceiling cannot rise until he can prove to be a potent vertical threat – he only went 3/11 with 6 uncatchables on deep throws versus impact opponents, compared to going 9/14 against lesser competition.
22. Jalon Daniels: General Accuracy
Daniels is a sparkplug. But as incendiary as his game is, he has some self-destructive tendencies. Naturally, a more downfield spray saw his ball placement figures suffer. None finished above the impact average. And, for the 2nd-straight impact study, Daniels logged a +8.0% Interceptable Pass Rate overall and a +9.5% clip on true dropback attempts. Those are well into the dangerzone. It’s one thing to biff a pass where no one has a shot at the ball; and it’s another thing entirely to biff a pass that could result in a turnover. Tight windows were particularly damaging to his profile. At least, Daniels has a past track record of being able to nail open targets. If KU’s receivers can create better cushion, this problem might solve itself. Still, putting the ball into harm’s way that often is a buzzkill waiting to happen.
23. Luke Altmyer: Passing Potency
There’s just no way around it: Altmyer has to get better at manufacturing big gainers if Bielema’s Bunch wants to make the playoffs. Even with a dynamic pass catching duo, Altmyer’s challenging slate overly muted him last fall. In our study, he rocked a double-digit Sack Rate, below-average accuracy metrics, and a negative Explosive:Interceptable Ratio. On true dropbacks, Altmyer was over 4x more likely to log a turnover-worthy pass than a 20+ yard completion. His 2.7% Explosive Pass Rate and 4.4 ANY/A in this context were both the group’s worst. With little juice, Illinois trailed on nearly 82% of his attempts against his impact opponents. For context, the only SECers to have a makeup north of 69% played for Miss State. That’s undeniably a red flag.
Moss is a fairly accurate and competent distributor; but he was benched for a reason. His modus operandi of feverishly working the underbelly of coverages and carving out tight window completions not only failed to raise his offense’s upside, but it often killed the Trojans’ already-low margin of error. For what it’s worth, he was the only impacter in this year’s study with a bottom6 ADOT and top6 Contested Makeup. That’s just not an optimal approach to mine efficiency and improve your chances to win ballgames. Moreover, he generated a negative Explosive:Interceptable Ratio; a feat only 8 of his peers accomplished. Splash gains, however, could be more frequent at his new stop; or at least, the opportunity to create splash plays. Each of the last two years, Jeff Brohm’s Louisville QBs have topped a 15% Deep Pass Rate. Moss’s 7.8% makeup, on the other hand, was the group’s 2nd-lowest.
Drones is a toolsy passer with a plus arm, and VA Tech overly deploys it via a “dink and chunk” operation. He was accurate on 52% of his downfield throws – 7th-best in our study. But despite appreciable improvement targeting those areas, the Hokie saw less than 30% of his throws against enhanced competition travel beyond ten yards. Only three of his peers turned in a lower makeup. Compared to last year’s study, his Deep Pass Rate dipped 5 points. Already a passer with nice bang-for-buck (i.e. a 3-1 Explosive:Interceptable Ratio), there’s a lot of untapped potential if he can add more verticality to his operation.
Though once valiant and decisive bobbing and weaving inside the pocket working throwing windows, Fifita was more hesitant to rip it in rhythm last year. He broke rank quite often. His time to throw ballooned by over a half-second compared to 2023 and finished as the 8th-highest in the P4. Throwaways made up almost an eighth of Fifita’s impact sample, which obviously dinged his overall numbers. Still, the short king appeared to not see the field as well as he did before. There were a number of instances of him leaving the pocket cleanly and not clocking an open man downfield. Additionally, his timing and anticipation soured a bit, best illustrated by double-digit slides in his such Completion%, Accuracy%, and Uncatchable% year-over-year. Even if obstructions will continue to give him issues, hastening his gaze and processing will boost his abilities as a lethal pocket distributor.
While overly serviceable, Chiles was boosted by his scheme’s affinity for deception. No impacter bested his 63% Success Rate and 57% First Down+TD off play action. Plus, his Depth Adjusted Accuracy% just missed cracking the 70% threshold. True dropbacks without fakes produced figures 25, 31, and 24 percentage points worse, respectively. Plus, over a quarter of his play action throws generated an explosive gain compared to roughly a tenth of others. The delta between his two ANY/A clips was a striking 4 yards.
Despite a buttery release, balance issues frequently affect Johnson’s spray and locations. Whether it’s going airborne on the move, shuffling around, letting his legs do too much of the driving after stepping up in the pocket, or releasing throws up on his front leg, the poor transfer of weight resulted in underwhelming accuracy metrics, especially on downfield targets. On ten-plus yard tries, Johnson’s 42.9% Uncatchable Pass Rate was the highest in the class. Moreover, only six of his peers posted a lower such Completion% than his 38.1% clip. The math isn’t too complicated here. If he can manage to complete more worthwhile throws than he wastes, Kansas State should be in a much better spot year-over-year. If not, the offense will be capped and not as threatening to defend.
Becht loves peppering underneath concepts and taking small-to-medium sized completions. He seldom seeks to stretch the field. And thusly, opponents know he’s a timing-centric passer. He routinely invites contested coverage and batted balls. His sample saw 14.5% of his attempts altered by defenders in some way. If that was averaged out over the entire season, that figure would have led the SEC by 2 points. And with so many havoc snaps, foes had loads of chances to get him off the field. Nearly a tenth of his sample could have been picked off. Sporting a negative Explosive:Interceptable Pass Ratio and a subpar downfield Uncatchable Pass Rate for the 2nd-straight impact study is a bad look.
Arnold was a part of the SEC’s worst offense last year and struggled immensely to generate value. Afraid to take risks and lacking trust in his outlets to win downfield, he commonly avoided vertical attempts and potential danger, breaking plenty of plays in the process. No other impacter logged sub-5% Explosive and Interceptable Pass Rates. He also posted the group’s highest Sack Rate and lowest Passing Success Rate. His 40.9% Depth Adjusted Accuracy and 24.6% First Down+TD Rate finished in the bottom5. Only Anthony Colandrea owned a worse ANY/A than his 4.5. Statistically stinky stuff. Things like injuries and questionable play calling were out of his control. But now in a make-or-break year (for himself as well as his new head coach), he has to provide more plus plays.
Gronowski was one of the FCS’s most notable passers and could do great things at Iowa this fall. But while he was able to extend and find off-schedule success, someone of his build has to develop more patience and refinement operating inside the pocket. He has random spells of throwing himself off-balance, particularly when on the move or in the middle of his dropback. Muddy pockets can force him to overextend. And when his vision gets obstructed or his first read isn’t there, he can get a little panicky and break rank prematurely. Instead of flowing through his progression or checking out field-side combos, he invites pressures and potential havocs. Luckily, his transition will be helped thanks to Iowa’s 3 impact O-linemen.
Dampier is one of the best sack erasers in college football. But his backyard heroics didn’t really produce an amazing passing profile, even with his easier slate. His ANY/A finished in the red overall, against pressure, on true dropbacks, and in “floor” situations. His down-to-down Accuracy% in those spots was mediocre at best. And the only breakout where his Explosive Pass Rate beat the impact average was when he used play action. Though his backbreaking 14.5% Drop Rate shouldn’t follow him to Utah, there’s a decent chance his subpar 7.7% Interceptable Pass Rate will due to his mercurial style of play.
Reed’s reviews are mixed. On one hand, he’s explosive, regularly pushes the ball downfield, has zesty legs, and helped TAMU win some key ball games. Still, he’s erratic and turbulent in almost every breakout. His results might have been more-than-fine, but his process was halfcocked and full of potential red flags, mostly thanks to wavering ball placement. Both his overall raw and depth-adjusted accuracy clips fell into the group’s bottom5. And when omitting throwaways, his 21.5% Uncatchable Pass Rate was the study’s 8th-worst. Speaking to his downfield misfires, he was just as likely to throw an on-target pass as an uncatchable (39.5%) on tries beyond ten yards past the line. Both figures, too, fell into the bottom5.
Salter was one of the most efficient passers in 2023 despite sporting some lousy lower body mechanics. He failed to fix his issues last summer, and he was not so fortunate this past season, despite facing a much easier defensive slate. Like in last year’s impact study, his placement was stressed due to high verticality and favoring downfield throws. But, he was far more inconsistent on his worthwhile targets. Overall, every one of his ball placement metrics finished below the group average, highlighted by the worst Adjusted Completion% and Accuracy%. Pressure exacerbated this combustibility. Plus, his unsteadiness birthed a negative Explosive:Interceptable Pass Ratio in every breakout. That’s kinda the opposite of how Coach Prime’s offenses have functioned the last couple of years. So it’ll be interesting to see how he’ll evolve out west.
Holstein fully took advantage of one of the easier P4 slates last year. Despite overly rocking stinky placement stats, basically all of his overall result metrics beat the impact average. But moving forward, fixing his accuracy could see his second-year leap boost him into the upper echelon of college passers. Sure, he has to work on his anticipation and response to pressure like many young QBs. But when honing in on his worthwhile throws, remedying them is of utmost importance. Overall, almost 24% of his throws had no shot of being caught and it was even worse downfield. There, he was more likely to toss an uncatchable than an on-target pass (40.5% vs 39.1%), largely thanks to consistent deep overthrows. Only two of his peers were more prone to downfield biffs. However, his 47.1% such Completion% cracked the crop’s top10. With improved precision, that stat – along with a number of other metrics – ought to pop off the screen.
Edwards inflicted most of his damage via RPOs and against mid defenses. When asked to be a pure passer, he left plenty to be desired. Yes, he kept the ball out of harm’s way and displayed good downfield catchability, but his dropback metrics were entirely disappointing; both in terms of process and results. His placement was overly shoddy. His Accuracy%, Depth Adjusted Accuracy%, and Uncatchable% all finished well below the impact average. And, Edwards’ ANY/A, Success Rate, and First Down+TD Rate all fell into the group’s bottom4. Even for the Dairy Raid sent out to Pasteur… those figures are too sour.
Fresh off committing to Tulane through an unconventional path, Retzlaff is poised to be one of the G5’s most potent passers. But he won’t totally win anyone over until his performance under pressure improves. Even excluding throwaways, over half of his durressed attempts were uncatchable; under a quarter were deemed on-target. Along with the latter, his 10.8% Depth Adjusted Accuracy% easily represented the group’s floor in this breakout. Rounding out his regrettable placement figures, a sixth of Retzlaff’s duressed dropbacks were turnover-worthy. Even though his downfield spray helped produce more big gainers, his Explosive:Interceptable Pass Ratio was negative.
Morris looked rather polished beating up G5 opponents last year. North Texas’ wide-open scheme didn’t press or force the issue too much, but he consistently struggled finding wins when testing tight windows. Highlighted by a -1.8 ANY/A on these tries, every single one of his contested target metrics finished below the impact average. Plus, Morris totaled 14 interceptable throws in these spots; he only had two on all other attempts in his sample. It would be one thing if he was transferring to an offense humming and full of separators. But since that’s not the case, Morris’ ability to navigate traffic will be paramount for the Cavaliers (and Tony Elliot’s job security).
Despite looking good on paper, Morton is a clear offensive executive with just meh physical abilities. He was abysmal when pressured and when on the move. And, he hardly offered much value as a downfield passer. That being said, Texas Tech’s recent roster investments ought to have him do less heavy lifting and ask him to continue managing the offense. So instead of focusing on raising his unit’s ceiling, Morton should emphasize reaffirming the Red Raiders’ floor by being a more sound down-to-down decision maker. Easier said than done, because he was suboptimal in that space against enhanced competition. None of his result stats in any breakout beat the impact average. Still, he should be placed in more situations to succeed thanks to his talented supporting cast.
South Alabama predominantly played to Lopez’s strengths. As an undersized, underclassman, Lopez noticeably wasn’t his most comfortable self within structure. The Jags moved him outside the pocket to help his vision, scripted loads of perimeter routes, had him execute plenty of RPOs, and avoided intermediate areas of the field. The results were pretty nice. But leveling up to UNC, he’s bound to face more adversity, obstructions, and muddy pockets that could undercut his effectiveness. While it remains to be seen how Bill Belichick will utilize Lopez, being a sounder threat from the pocket will help all parties involved. If he’s unable to improve his eyes, mechanics, and anticipation, there’s no guarantee he’ll remain the Tar Heels’ top option.