SEC Stat Cat
Just in time for when temperatures are at their hottest, Summer’s Talking Season delivers no shortage of scorching takes and opinions around the top returning football players. No doubt, things certainly can get a little heated discussing QBs.
From seasoned veterans returning for a final shot at glory to breakout stars lighting up the stat sheet, this year’s crop is diverse and divisive. You could poll 10 different analysts and get back 10 completely different lists regarding their premier passers. Still, the consensus has identified roughly a dozen or so guys who have real next-level aspirations.
Instead of citing counting stats and reading box scores, I personally charted each QB against their hardest defensive opponents yearning to find if they have traits that translate or advanced metrics that matter. The yearly “Impact Study” has a solid track record for vetting difference-makers and offensive executives alike. Though not a perfect exercise due to different degrees of difficulty, it’s still much better taking stats as is that have games versus Poop State on the slate. And, most people care more about “good-on-good” than bufu’ing bad secondaries.
This piece will solely focus on the single most important aspect to fix/address for each of our 44 QBs in this year’s study – honing in on the top-half of the list.
Leavitt has fantastic accuracy and anticipation. But with only an average frame, managing obstructed views will be his Sisyphean task and the main detriment to his ascent. He’s still adjusting to seeing the field optimally and winning on a down-to-down basis. Play action helped present clearer pictures. However, excluding those snaps, every single one of his breakouts produced a below-average First Down+TD Rate in our impact study, articulating how Leavitt “leaves plays on the field”. Folks at the next level craving the next cerebral processor will want to see strides in that department. Good thing he has the tools and moxy to find passing windows to right these wrongs, both in and outside of structure. But in order to throw to an open target, one first has to see an open target.
Sellers is a hoss and a boss. Arguably the most talented player in college football, he has traits that translate and metrics that matter. But while he remains a hard man to tackle, a big-arm thrower, accurate distributor, and general threat to do something crazy on any given snap, he often makes things more difficult on himself due to his delay distributing the football. Chalk it up to lack of faith in his receivers to win downfield, being slow diagnosing coverages, or general inexperience. But buffering and inviting pressures occurred way too much last year. After all, his 3.3 average seconds to throw led the Power4. South Carolina’s offense does a nice job of attacking the flat and helping him play hot potato as is. But in the dropback game, he’s got to find more consistency finding his targets in a timely fashion.
With a truncated sample against mostly poopy opponents, both Manning’s tape and metrics are a bit wobbly. Super-duper optimistic, but wobbly. Since Steve Sarkisian’s offense tends to create plenty of layups for his passers with eye candy, screens, and deception, I’m more focused to see how the golden boy performs on pure passing downs in the dropback game. So far so good. But, kicking ass in those spots again will quell claims he’s just an offensive executive in a premier environment as well as win over sour scouts. After all, the Mannings don’t host a rushing academy each summer for all the scramblers. The family has a passing pedigree.
Poor ball security is common among most freshmen thrown into the fire. And risky throws are often a side effect to vertical-passing playmakers. Checking both of those boxes last year, Lagway certainly was prone to turnover-worthy plays. His 9.1% such clip was the 4th-highest mark in the SEC. And excluding the Samford game, his 11.4% Interceptable Pass Rate was the 2nd-worst clip in our impact study. That’s entirely unsustainable, both for him and the Gators’ hopes of turning things around. But if the boo boos are cleaned up, Lagway’s presumed second-year leap in tow with his potency ought to make Florida one of the most frisky, fun, and low-key dangerous offenses around.
Nussmeier has a pretty good arm and great feet. Yet, he’s never finished on the good side of the SEC average in Uncatchable Pass Rate. While that’s never great, it’s all the more concerning that the Gumbo Gunslinger consistently has biffed downfield tries across his career. From 2022-23, over 36% of his targets ten-plus yards past the line of scrimmage were uncatchable. And last year, his 31.7% clip was bottom5 amongst SEC starters. And by volume, his 63 were 17 more than the next man up. Against heightened competition, over a third were wasted. And, his mark fell into the bottom12 of our study. Though some silver linings exist within structure, a passer with first-round aspirations simply has to keep more chances in play.
Allar might possess a sturdy build and mighty arm, but his ball placement is routinely affected by his shoddy lower body mechanics. Rocking lukewarm placement stats overall, flimsy foundations and funky footwork are particularly visible when pressured or on the move - both his Accuracy% and Uncatchable% finished in the red in those breakouts for the 2nd-straight impact study. Subsequently, his result stats followed suit. Even when clean within structure, sloppy bases saw him waste far too many passes (over a quarter!). Yes, his upper body has juice. But a failure to fix his footwork and balance might make Allar not worth the squeeze for folks at the next-level.
This time last year, you had to squint to find blemishes on Beck’s impact profile. But thanks to some regression in his down-to-down accuracy, pressing more, and remaining a sad sack under duress, there’s plenty to pick apart ahead of 2025. I’d like to see Beck morph into at least an average passer against pressure at some point; but cutting out costly throws is more crucial to rejuvenate his resume. Beck’s overall, dropback, and “pass floor” Interceptable Pass Rates all came in below the impact average. The latter pair finished in the double-digits, which is unquestionably backbreaking and a red flag for any scout. Though Beck should keep up his downfield spray in South Florida, reigning in his aggressiveness a smidge could go a long way. Who knows? Without drops and close ball games, maybe Beck won’t have to press at all. And with another year of football behind him, his veteran diagnosis skills ought to help him slice out mistakes.
Scores of people have Klubnik as their QB1 ahead of this fall. So either I am a total hater or a surefire soothsayer. Though he had one of the most impressive halves of any passer last fall, he still posted far more examples of middling play and blah efficiency. Klubnik overly rides a short-driven spray accustomed to contested coverage, typically an unfriendly combo for QBs. For the 2nd-straight impact study, he logged not only a negative Explosive:Interceptable Pass Ratio overall but in pure dropbacks situations as well. For the 2nd-straight impact study, less than 8% of his sample’s attempts produced a 20+ yard gain, despite showing more teeth and testing opponents deep in 2024. And for the 2nd-straight impact study, he generated a mediocre Accuracy% on targets beyond ten yards. More than a fifth of his downfield passes could have been picked off, even though his catchabilty was among the best in the group this summer. Big plays are as paramount as ever to tilt ball games. And, a failure to consistently conjure them certainly will ding his outlook in my eyes
Mateer is a creative playmaker with a plus arm. But his placement stats were overly unacceptable when asked to move, evade, or extend. Rooted in his erratic mechanics including a low-elbow release and propensity to launch from narrow bases, his zealous, sidewinder motion frequently knocks him off-kilter and forces him to throw off-balance. Excluding throwaways, only 8 impacters were more prone to uncatchables in our study. When looking downfield, over a third were wasted and a sixth were turnover-worthy. Again, his passes tend to travel with plenty of mustard. But considering he is leveling up and expected to elevate Oklahoma’s offense, making an impact will come much easier if he’s on-target. Fat chance he’s going to retool his delivery from scratch in order to fix these miscues. So, improvement might have to come through timing, anticipation, and hoping his receivers get wide-the-hell-open.
As a tall passer who liked to show off his fastball and rifle ropes with little air, Iamaleava’s natural body mechanics don’t leave much room for error. Too often, his man just couldn’t catch up or get his mitts on tries. Though dull verticality could neuter any pass game, that shortcoming was especially unforgiving for Tennessee’s downfield-oriented attack. Over the last three years, only three SECers posted a higher Deep (+20) Uncatchable Pass Rate than Iamaleava’s 48.9% clip. In our study, his clip ticked up 3 points and less than a quarter were deemed on-target. With so many duds, no impacter posted a lower overall Depth Adjusted Accuracy%. In fact, he was the only dude to turn in a clip under 40%. Expectedly, the Vols fell into the league’s bottom3 for the 2nd-consecutive year in Explosive Pass Rate. Now out west, it remains to be seen if Iamaleava will still have a greenlight to push the pill vertically. But nailing some dingers and being more trusty generating explosives is one quick way to make an impact and recharge the brand.
Though he could stand to improve his offerings when on the move, Hoover as an undersized pocket passer would greatly boost his profile by pushing the ball downfield more this fall. Despite pretty placement stats attacking all over, he overly targeted short, where it’s less challenging to fling on-target tries. Less than a third of his sample’s attempts traveled beyond ten yards downfield. Still, his Depth Adjusted and Downfield (+10) Accuracy% were both best in the crop. And, explosives come easier via verticality. Though there is some concern of selection bias and optimal prudence (i.e. Hoover avoided these targets and unless he was super sure he could complete them), leaning into the explosive play battle a tad more could be the difference between being a borderline bowl team and contending for the conference crown.
Green is a player full of highs and lows. Much of these extremes are rooted in his wonky mechanics. He overly rocks a down-and-around motion with a wide, low elbow on his release. And when he gets his hips involved, it can resemble a swinging gate. Even with an effort to be more “centralized” and develop a tempo to throw on time, odd bases and poor efforts transferring his weight pop up, both in and outside of structure. No question, Green displayed improvement under Bobby Petrino’s tutelage at reducing these kinks and being a better “quarterback”. His overall Adjusted Completion%, Depth Adjusted Accuracy%, and Adjusted Uncatchable% were all at least 12 percentage points better than last year’s breakout. Plus, they all made the crop’s top8. Yet, old habits are hard to break. Untrustworthy mechanics still resulted in loads of turnover-worthy plays. Cutting those out are paramount. But, another year of polish could see him mocked in the first round.
Tall, mobile, and strong-armed, Robertson’s length is apparent in his entire operation. Though excellent on the move, everything else is a crapshoot; especially when he’s just asked to stand and throw. His lower-half is awfully inconsistent. In addition to going all-arm at times, he can demonstrably swing his long back leg or rock a high knee on his follow-thru; particularly when aiming left. Plus, he can shuffle his feet when processing coverages. This leads to constant balance issues that affect his down-to-down catchability. Speaking of, over 22% of his sample was wasted. But nothing was more damning than logging the impact study’s worst Adjusted Completion%, Accuracy%, and Uncatchable% on clean dropbacks without guises.
Though Mendoza’s internal clock, anticipation, and sack erasing skills need work, I’d like to see better regularity on worthwhile throws. Mendoza preferred to pepper his hardest opponents short. His 29.9% Downfield Target Rate fell into the group’s bottom8. And, focusing targets closer to the line of scrimmage helped skew Mendoza’s numbers. In fact, 68.1% of his sample’s throws were on-target, the group’s 4th-best mark. But, downfield offerings were much more honest and reflective of his hiccups. Both his Accuracy% and Uncatchable% on throws over 10 yards past the line fell well below the Impact average; a shock since his Completion% was well into the green both on deep and intermediate tries. Perhaps the sourness will remedy itself with more reps and a consistent effort improving his lower body techniques. But, IU won’t crash the playoffs again if Mendoza remains a mid downfield thrower when facing enhanced competition.
Pavia will tell you himself: Anytime he has the ball, he believes he can make something happen. And yes, the Commodore is one of the best extenders and operators outside the pocket in college football. But his penchant for herotics and keeping plays alive often invites contests and tight coverage. Almost a quarter of his sample’s attempts were contested. Though he held his own, his so-so arm talent served up a few lollipops for defenders. Of the 14 interceptables against his hardest opponents, 11 were on tight window targets. Moreover, his 8.8% clip overall – that fell into our study’s bottom10 – almost equaled Pavia’s Explosive Pass Rate. That’s not the bang-for-buck you want, nor the way to help you win within the margins.
The freshman all-american is a lanky, toolsy weapon full of potential. But, he didn’t have too many field-stretching throws. In his impact sample, no passes traveled beyond 40 yards. A mere 10% of his throws topped 20 yards, which placed him inside the group’s bottom10. But when he did let it rip, Bailey made the top15 in both deep and midrange Accuracy%. Plus, his 51.9% clip on all throws over ten yar