SEC Stat Cat
Since it’s list season, and lists are the bee’s knees, I suppose a professional listmaker ought to make some right?
Centered around this year’s QB Impact Study – where I chart each against their 6/7 hardest opponents in an effort to cut out the fat and see how passers respond to adversity – here are the Top5 Checkdown Charlies, Boom Booms, Brucies, best outside the numbers, and Backyard Ballers!
In an effort to protect its first-year passer, Nebraska fed Raiola a healthy amount of screens in pure passing situations. Ultimately, a quarter of his sample’s throws targeted behind the line of scrimmage, the 5th-highest rate in the class. And as a result, only two of his peers posted a lower overall average depth of target than his 7.3 figure. Even when excluding screens and RPOs, his ADOT remained near the group’s floor on true dropback attempts. Over 7% of his touches resulted in a true checkdown, the highest play share of any “concept”. But avoiding risk begat a top8 Interceptable Pass Rate.
Like Raiola, Edwards had a high concentration of screens against his hardest opponents. True screen targets accounted for almost 15% of his total touches in our Impact Study. With that amount of layups, no wonder his Interceptable Pass Rate easily fell into the green. But even on pure dropbacks – where his ADOT crept towards the middle of the pack – he managed to turn in a top10 clip.
Despite having a plus arm, Drones typically attacked heightened competition underneath. He was very selective with his downfield tries. Only three of his peers directed a lower percentage of throws beyond ten yards past the line of scrimmage than his 28% makeup. Consistently keeping the ball out of harm’s way, his 3.9% Interceptable Pass Rate was top4-worthy. All the while, he was 3x more likely to log an explosive as a turnover-worthy throw.
Arnold was risk-averse to a fault. There were a number of times where he seemed more-than-okay settling with a sack or throwaway rather than try downfield or execute a full-field read. Simply: If he didn’t like what he saw, the ball would not come out. This M.O. saw Arnold place inside the impact group’s bottom5 in both ADOT and Interceptable Pass Rate. Moreover, hunting for surefire completions saw a high rate of on-target attempts. When accounting for throwaways, no impacter had a lower Adjusted Uncatchable Pass Rate than his 11.7% mark.
Thanks to the dominance of Georgia Tech’s ground game, King hardly had to do any heavy lifting when passing. Over a quarter of his throws targeted a screen or RPO. And when including true play fakes, almost half of his attempts used some form of a scheme element. Typically acting as an extension to the rushing attack, hitting abundant outlets saw nearly a third of his passes go behind the line. Less than 24% traveled ten-plus yards downfield. Naturally, the conservatism yielded an ADOT that finished dead last in the group. His 5.6 clip is a yard-and-a-half below the next man in line. And, generally milking the clock meant he didn’t have to press. He was the only impacter with a single-digit Contested Pass%. And without defenders nearby for the vast majority of his tries, his 1.1% Interceptable Pass Rate rocked the group’s gold medal.
Despite being devastating by drops across his 2024 season, Beck’s potency endured. He was the only SEC passer to see at least an eighth of his passes result in drops as well as explosive completions. In our study, his tenacity and passing down prowess saw his 15.3% clip crack the crop’s top6 on true dropbacks. In case you forgot, he was the group’s most incendiary passer this time last year, commanding a robust 16.9% overall Explosive Pass Rate and a 20.1% mark without RPOs and screens. If Miami can just be average limiting drops, good bet he’ll return to that old form.
Leavitt is a bucket. Accurate all over the yard, he cracked impact top5 in downfield on-target rate. Naturally, constantly hitting his men for chunk gains bolstered his bottomline. Overall, he was almost 4x more-likely to toss an explosive than an interceptable. On pure dropbacks, his 15.9% was top4-worthy. And, no one topped his such 8.9 Adjusted Net Passing Yards/Attempt, which was especially aided by his performance off play action.
Old man Daniels remains one of the better playmakers at the position. Known for constantly manufacturing splash plays, his recent verticality teases how high his flames can climb. Only two of his peers logged a higher overall ADOT than his 11.9 mark. And, he was the only dude to target beyond 20 yards downfield on over a fifth of his attempts. For back-to-back impact studies, his Explosive Pass Rate has hovered around 14%. And despite some ball placement concerns, his 8.4 ANY/A in dropback situations earned the group’s bronze medal.
An offensive executive with a high play action rate, no one dedicated a higher percentage of throws beyond ten yards downfield in our sample than Mensah’s 50% clip. In fact, no one else had a clip over 47%. He was singularly efficient in the midrange, rocking a top5 Accuracy% and top3 Completion%. With regular downfield completions, he boasted the group’s 2nd-best dropback Explosive Pass Rate and ANY/A. Duke allowed wayward Maalik Murphy to chuck it deep. Looking at these returns, their fortunes ought to improve this fall.
One of the most vertical passers in the SEC as a true freshman, Lagway instantly lived up to his blue chip pedigree by nailing a number of dingers. No returning full-time starter dons a better overall ANY/A than his 8.2 clip. But even excluding that phenomenal game against Samford, no impact QB bested his 15.6% Explosive Pass Rate across their sample. He almost held first place by a full percentage point. Though cutting screens and RPOs out of the equation only marginally improved that statistic of his, Lagway remained top of the crop on pure dropbacks.
Altmyer is getting some love this offseason, but he’s still sloppy when it comes to delivering accurate passes. Omitting throwaways, only 5 of his peers had a higher Uncatchable Pass Rate in our impact study. Moreover, his raw 58.1% Accuracy% fell into the group’s bottom10. He’s just not a sound dropback passer. Though a fine distributor and executor of his scheme, his pure pass attempts were often sour. On true dropbacks, all of Altmeyer’s placement stats finished in the red. Another major hangup lies in his Interceptable% being more than 4x the size of his Explosive% in these spots.
Reed has juice and can make for exciting football. But he’s still working on eliminating biffs, boo boos, and bad balls. His 40.8% overall Depth Adjusted Accuracy% was firmly in the group’s basement. Plus, his 21.5% Uncatchable Pass Rate was bottom10-worthy. As you might guess, he failed to make the most of his downfield throws. Reed was 1/5 impacters off-target more than 60% of tries ten-plus yards past the line of scrimmage. Even in structure without guises or pressure, his placement failed to light a spark. Both his raw and depth-adjusted accuracies came in below the impact average.
Over the last three years, only three SECers posted a higher Deep (+20) Uncatchable Pass Rate than Iamaleava’s 48.9% clip. Though some offenses can navigate leaving those kinds of plays on the field, Tennessee’s vertical choice passing game isn’t among them. And results were often mixed at best without the big gainers buoying the bottomline. As you might surmise, he placed dead last in our study in overall Depth-Adjusted Accuracy%; the only passer to turn in a clip under 40%. And on pure dropbacks, more than half of his throws failed to be perfectly on-target; over a quarter had zero shot at being caught.
Holstein was sneakily scattershot last year against heightened competition. Posting above-average result stats while helping your team top expectations is often a nice cover for passers with flaws. Only the headliner of this list was more prone to uncatchables. In fact, all of his placement stats were resoundingly in the red, with both his raw and depth-adjusted accuracies placing in the group’s bottom8. His overall “catchability” was a little better on true dropbacks. But his downfield placement was still putrid. On targets ten-plus yards past the line of scrimmage, his 40.5% Accuracy% was the group’s 3rd-worst mark.
Murph was a frustrating chart full of missed opportunities and iffy attempts. In a dink and chuck operation, the deep ball was overly visible. But, far too many missed the mark. Other than Jackson Arnold, no impacter donned a lower downfield Accuracy% than his 34.8% clip. And besides Avery Johnson, the same was true regarding his 41.8% downfield Uncatchable Pass Rate. That’s right. He was more likely to waste a throw entirely than deliver an on-target pass in this context. On true dropbacks, Murphy represented the group’s floor in Accuracy%, Depth-Adjusted Accuracy%, Uncatchable%, and Adjusted Completion%. Popcorn hands or no, that’s decidedly bad.
Robertson routinely displayed plus arm-strength targeting outside the numbers against heightened competition. His raw Accuracy% just missed making the top10. But, his 51.1% Depth Adjusted Accuracy – that applies more weight the further passes travel – made the top6. Of his 12 sample TDs, 9 came on these tries – the most of anyone in our study. In terms of his makeup of attempts, completions, and yards, all of his clips topped 50%. Subsequently, the high usage saw all of those marks earn the group’s silver medal.
Mendoza was a dependable producer out on the perimeter. This area was often his safe space. He had the group’s 5th-highest yard and 6th-highest completion makeups. Capable of peppering darts to unoccupied space via rollouts or RPOs, he captured the 2nd-best Success Rate in our study, which helped freshen his overall figures. His decision-making also showed some teeth by posting a top8 First Down+TD Rate and ANY/A, despite an impact-low ADOT on these chances.
Due to how he can generate splash plays from undercenter and paint the sideline, Chiles is an intriguing pro-style prospect. Play action and deception obviously helps, but his arm has plenty of juice to take care of business out-wide. He did favor targeting the middle of the field; his perimeter makeup was the crop’s 6th-lowest. However, he boasts the group’s 3rd-best Accuracy% and Uncatchable% as well as the silver medal in Depth Adjusted Accuracy%. Gobs of on-target passes generated Chiles’ top5 Explosive Pass Rates and ANY/A.
Like Chiles, Hoover didn’t seek out targets outside the numbers. His makeup comfortably fell into the bottom5. And, he wasn’t one to press vertically too much; his ADOT also fell into that range. But when he did let it rip, the results were more-than-respectable. His raw Accuracy%, Depth Adjusted Accuracy%, and Success Rate were all top of the crop. Plus, he sported the 4th-best ANY/A and 3rd-best Explosive%, implying the snappy passer has some pop.
No impacter was as prolific on the perimeter than Daniels. All three of his attempt, completion, and yard makeups topped 53% and were the highest clips in our study. And while his verticality birthed some mid accuracy stats, he was still rather efficient, despite the compiling claims. Along with the 2nd-best First Down+TD Rate, both his Success and Explosive Pass Rates are top5-worthy.
Spry and nimble, Leavitt not only uses his athleticism to aid his passing but is also one of the more effective scramblers ahead of this fall. He negated twice as many sacks compared to the number suffered against his hardest opponents (18 vs 9). And on non-designed runs, he showed off his boogie, totaling 285 yards on a very nice 69% Success Rate and 9.8 Y/A. Outside the pocket as a distributor, he was downfield-focused. Both his ADOT and Explosive Pass Rate cracked the study’s top4.