SEC Stat Cat
Since it’s list season, and lists are the bee’s knees, I suppose a professional listmaker ought to make some right?
Centered around this year’s QB Impact Study – where I chart each against their 6/7 hardest opponents in an effort to cut out the fat and see how passers respond to adversity – here are the Top5 Penthouse Passers, Play Action Aces, Waste-Nots, Tight Window Winners, and Pill Pushers!
Maiva is inherently an aggressive QB that doesn’t mind stretching the field. So on a down-to-down basis, his output is bound to display some heightened value over an average passer’s spray. After all, explosives come much easier on downfield throws than avenues behind the line of scrimmage. For the 2nd-straight impact study, he produced a firmly above-average Depth Adjusted Accuracy% and First Down+TD Rate in “floor” situations. This past year, he cut out the interceptables and remained a threatening vertical passer in structure. He even showed major improvement limiting uncatchacles. If Maiava can stay the course, Lincoln Riley might have his next Heisman.
Nuss is built to do damage within structure. His quick feet and rotational throwing style let him change his launch point milliseconds before release and deliver passes in a timely fashion. Though no slouch when stressed or moved off his mark, he’s much more accurate, trusty, and potent passer in this context. To that point, his accuracy figures beat the impact mean. Though there was still some gumbo gunslinger in his operation, Nussmeier’s solid placement helped earn the group’s 5th-best Adjusted Net Passing Yards/Attempt (8.5).
It’s far from a hot take to say Beck is at his most dangerous distributing from the pocket. Even with some regression in placement and a higher propensity to press, his metrics project one of the highest pass floors in college football. A seventh of his attempts resulted in drops in this context, yet his Yards/Attempt made the crop’s top8. For the most part, all of his result stats beat the impact mean, led by his top3-worthy 16.1% Explosive Pass Rate. Haters will keep debating his ceiling until he shows more consistency in extra breakouts, but his steadiness within structure is apparent.
From a distance, Hoover’s modus operandi can be described as methodical. He overly cuts and carves coverages underneath in a surgical manner and keeps his offense ahead of the chains. TCU doesn’t go out of its way to give him layups or scheme-driven elements. And, he’s quite capable of capturing consistent wins in the dropback game. As one of the study’s most-accurate performers this year, his premium precision showed out within structure. Only DJ Lagway bested his mighty 64.4% Depth-adjusted Accuracy. Even with the occasional batted ball, his raw 72.5% clip made the top5. And along with being twice as likely to log an explosive over an interceptable, his 45% First Down+TD also made the top5.
Daniels plays in a very fun scheme that often can create seismic opportunities. But even without play actions, RPOs, rollouts, or creations against pressure buoying his bottomline, he routinely raises his team’s chances by succeeding within structure. In consecutive impact studies, he’s topped a 42% First Down+TD Rate and 54% Depth Adjusted Accuracy despite injuries and multiple play callers. This past year, the gloves were really off as Daniels boasted the group’s best Success Rate. Additionally, he sported a top3 ANY/A and Explosive Pass Rate. Since only 4 of his peers generated a higher “floor” makeup than his 45.3%, his tenacity in this context creates one of the firmest foundations for any offensive playmaker ahead of this fall, despite lacking high end ball placement.
Retzlaff throws hard and doesn’t mind testing downfield. But as an undersized passer, he was often at his most lethal working outside the pocket, typically aided by play fakes. Without tossing a single interceptable attempt, he produced a top3 Adjusted Net Passing Yards/Attempt (ANY/A). His 14.2 figure off play action more than doubled his overall ANY/A. His efficiency is further highlighted by sporting the group’s 2nd-best First Down+TD Rate.
Not every college QB is tasked to operate undercenter, turn their back towards coverages, and locate targets downfield. But, Chiles is being molded into a promising pro style passer in this context. Among impacters with at least 18 play action attempts, his Success Rate was the only clip in the 60’s and his 57.1% First Down+TD Rate led the pack by 5 percentage points. Both his Adjusted Completion% and Depth Adjusted Accuracy% cracked the crop’s top5. Plus, over a quarter of these throws netted a gain of at least 20 yards. But the aggression was a double-edged sword that resulted in more turnover-worthy throws – and explains why his 7.9 ANY/A was relatively muted and mediocre.
Off play action, Sellers was overly a distributor and rode an “aim small, miss small” approach. Commonly taking what the defense gave him or hitting underneath outlets to space, he racked up copious completions and avoided risk exceptionally well. Behind his bottom8 average depth of target, he secured the group’s 2nd-best Adjusted Completion%, Accuracy%, and Depth Adjusted Accuracy%. And while being 1/6 impacters without an interceptible pass off play action, his ANY/A finished in the double-digits. Solid stuff even with the conservative spray. Imagine if he develops a tad more verticality in this department..
Gronowski was one of the FSC’s most impressive and steady performers. And, he constantly elevated his offense’s upside by kicking ass using deception. He was routinely feistier on these snaps compared to his normal spray. Nearly 29% of his sample throws resulted in an explosive completion; and no one else can best his 15.5 ANY/A. Naturally, his degree of difficulty was much easier than his peers. So putting too much faith into his metrics is folly. But knowing what Iowa wants to offensively, he compliments their M.O. quite well.
Having a back like Cam Scattebo obviously helps attract defenders’ eyeballs. But, Leavitt still sliced, diced, deflowered, and devoured coverages with his arm. Both on bootlegs on the move and stepping up in the pocket off a traditional fake, he displayed expertise, nuance, and skill beyond his years. His 13.9 Y/A was a yard-and-a-half more than the next man up. He was 1/3 impacters to log a +50% First Down+TD Rate with a +25% Explosive Pass Rate. Rounding out his profile and accentuating his reputation as one of game’s best passers, both his raw Accuracy% and Depth Adjusted Accuracy% finished inside the group’s top7.
King sports one of the top Completion% in college football ahead of 2025. Safe bet that he’d show up on this list. Excluding throwaways, only 11.1% of his sample’s attempts were uncatchable. While awesome on the surface, Georgia Tech gamed the system to make King a completion merchant. No impacter had a lower average depth of target (5.6) nor targeted behind the line more often (32.6%). And when asked to deal in pure dropbacks or target downfield, his catchability was rather mid – reflecting his previous inconsistencies placing the football. But due to last year’s success, King arm will likely function as an extension to his offense’s run game once again and be fed plenty of gimmes.
If you look up the definition of “gamer” in the dictionary, there’s a good chance you’ll see an image of Pavia. Gritty, determined, and resourceful, he’s sure as hell not one to give up on a play. He’s constantly searching for wins in the margins and doing more despite having less. He was 1/3 impact QBs – all of which played in the SEC – to finish inside the group’s top8 in both Depth Adjusted Accuracy and Adjusted Uncatchable Pass Rate. Speaking to his efficiency, only two of his peers were less prone to waste throws on tries beyond ten yards downfield than his 20.9% clip. And, Pavia accomplished this despite suffering from a Pressured Pass Rate that was 5 points higher than the next man up.
Oklahoma’s offense was literally decimated by injuries and trust was lacking across the board. Buffers, sacks, and safe outlets riddled the Sooners’ script as Arnold overly rode a risk-averse passing operation. If he didn’t like what he saw downfield, the ball was not coming out. But being choosy with his throws did result in him being one of the group’s best limiting uncatchables. Other than Haynes King, he was the only other impacter with a sub-12% Adjusted Uncatchable% and sub-5% Interceptable%. And on pure dropback situations, only the leader of this list was better at limiting biffs.
I might have concerns about Klubnik’s optimal precision, but he’s quite crafty at continuously giving his receivers stabs at his targets. Of course, rocking a spray with noticeable affinity for the short stuff helps lower the bar and present easier chances. But, his catchability remained even on his downfield tries per his top5-worthy 23.7% figure. And further speaking to his propensity to keep the ball in play, his Uncatchable% finished inside the top3 both on pure dropbacks and on all pressured attempts.
Beck’s general accuracy soured last year. But, he still remained among college football’s elite at limiting uncatchable passes. Including all games and all tries, no SECer had a lower such figure than his 13.6%. And in our impact study against his hardest foes, he routinely wasted fewer chances than everyone despite facing the group’s hardest slate. Downfield, pressured, dropbacks, outside the pocket: Didn’t matter. Beck’s Uncatchable Pass% was golden, which was overly the case this time last year too. Even after losing some luster, his profile still has plenty of shine behind covetous catchability.
Moss’s M.O. at USC was all about squeezing out short-to-medium sized wins. He was a much more of a horizontal passing threat than a vertical one. And defenses soon respected Trojan receivers’ space less-and-less. Like the man who usurped his role as the offense’s QB1, Moss sported a top6 Contested Pass Rate in our impact study. But unlike Maiava, both his process and results stats on these targets were all in the green. Like many, he was much more prone to turnover-worthy plays trying tight confines. But his Adjusted Net Passing Yards/Attempt (ANY/A), Success, and First Down+TD Rates all made the top5. The same was true for both his raw and depth-adjusted accuracy metrics.
Along with firing underneath darts, Becht had one of the top receiving tandems at this disposal. The attitude of “Jaylin Noel/Higgins over ‘der” very much drove much of his spray, tight coverage be damned. And his returns justify the calculation tenacity. No impacter bester his 48.7% Adjusted Completion% or 53.4% Depth Adjusted Accuracy. In fact, the latter was over 6 percentage points better than the next man up. And with a high number of on-target attempts into traffic, he generated the group’s 2nd-best ANY/A and Success Rate.
Retlaff might not be the biggest QB, but he produced plus figures when targeting his man in traffic. He might not have gunned for contested completions at a crazy rate, but regularly throws hard and with authority. Plus, he didn’t waste a high number of these passes, which ensured his pass catchers had scores of chances to make plays. Moreover, he tended to centralize his contested throws towards more vertical attempts. And, targeting downfield yielded a higher number of conversions and scores. His 43.3% First Down+TD Rate was 13 percentage points ahead of 2nd-place.
Across 2024, Green was arguably the SEC’s premier passer attacking congestion. Rocking the conference’s 3rd-highest makeup, he donned the top Accuracy% with a top3 Adjusted Completion%, Interceptable%, and Success Rate. Those triumphs largely bled over into his impact profile. And despite suffering from a 30% Drop Rate, Green still managed to finish inside the group’s top6 in Adjusted Net Passing Yards/Attempt (ANY/A).
Leavitt has the goods, dude. Accurate, mobile, and potent, he can fire on-target lasers from a number or platform all over the field. And in a breakout that tends to see passers log more turnover-worthy throws, his 0.83 Explosive: Interceptable Ratio was the lowest in our impact study. His cutting precision routinely showed up on contests; to the point his 51.2% Accuracy% earned the group’s silver medal. Behind many money balls, none of his peers top his 6.0 ANY/A. And that’s taking into account about a half-dozen ill-tracked backshoulder fades along the left sideline that should’ve been explosive gains.
While his predecessor had a reputation as a Checkdown Charlie, Lagway instantly flashed as a vertical threat. He’s an impact player through-and-through. As a true freshman, his 11.7 ADOT led the SEC; and it just missed making the national top10. Only one other impacter targeted beyond ten yards past the line of scrimmage at a higher rate than his 46.6% clip. Even excluding his marvelous performance against Samford, his 15.6% Explosive Pass Rate was