SEC Stat Cat
Since it’s list season, and lists are the bee’s knees, I suppose a professional listmaker ought to make some right?
Centered around this year’s QB Impact Study – where I chart each against their 6/7 hardest opponents in an effort to cut out the fat and see how passers respond to adversity – here are the Top5 Cool Cucumbers, Biscuit Riskers, Downfield Dimers, Busted by Butterfingers, and Perimeter Producers!
Hoover’s snappy release comes in handy beating heat. Despite facing a slightly below-average Pressure Rate, all of his metrics finished on the good side of the impact mean, culminating in his 7.6 Adjusted Net Passing Yards/Attempt (ANY/A) leading the pack. No one else had a figure north of 7.0. That isn’t to say he wasn’t or can’t be affected by pressure – most of his stats are well below his overall outputs – but as a high floor passer who can deal within structure, consistently countering combatants with relatively strong play in this context certainly raises his ceiling.
Green often is an agent of chaos. And when pressured, it was usually “all or nothing”. He was the only impact QB to log a bottom8 First Down+TD Rate and top8 Explosive Pass Rate under duress. His down-to-down accuracy was pretty mid. But his depth-adjusted clip made the group’s top quintile. Cutting down on turnover-worthy plays year-over-year was encouraging. But in such a volatile breakout against some of the best defenses in the land, old habits are hard to break. Another year, however, of these heroics might make him an early day draft pick.
Raiola is a trooper. As a true freshman, he withstood the group’s 3rd-highest Pressure Rate but delivered some of the most sterling placement stats. Both his raw Accuracy% and Adjusted Completion% donned the crop’s silver medal. Moreover, his Uncatchable% and Depth Adjusted Accuracy% each cracked the top5, as did his Explosive Pass Rate. Yes, some boo boo occurred. But for a first-year, that was a heartening debut and tease of what’s to come.
Leveling up into the P4, Mensah has the potential to be one of the ACC’s top passers this fall. His poise under pressure very well could boost him into the national spotlight. Though he has a few mechanical things to shore up, he has excellent eyes. Instead of dropping them to peep the rush, they stay downfield at his targets, whether locking and loading inside structure or improving on the move. Despite 11% of his pressured throws resulting in a drop, all of his process and result metrics in this breakout finished in the green. Moreover, Mensah’s Success, First Down+TD, and Explosive Pass Rates were all golden.
Sellers is the closest thing to a cyborg in college football. While he’s still working on his processing speed and anticipation skills, he remains one of the hardest dudes to tackle and a bonafide backyard baller. He hardly looks rattled and operates with a cold, stoic demeanor racking up real estate. Outside of Taylen Green, no other impact QB owned both a bottom7 Pressured Pass Rate and top7 ANY/A. His rocket launcher arm, prudent decision-making, and timely precision all showed up on the statsheet. His Explosive%, First Down+TD%, and Depth Adjusted Accuracy% were all top3-worthy. Plus, his 695 yards versus pressure across 2024 is the most of any returning SEC passer.
Constantly searching for wins in the margins, Pavia routinely tested tight windows. Just under a quarter of his sample qualified as a contested target. And without the zestiest arm, he left defenders plenty of opportunities to spoil his offerings. His 8.8% overall Interceptable Pass Rate fell into the group’s bottom10. And of his 14 turnover-worthy passes, 11 came trying a tight window.
Maiava is a heatseeker hardly deterred by traffic or tight coverage. Closing out USC’s 2024 campaign, over 28% of his targets were contested. But for the 2nd-straight impact study, his down-to-down accuracy was laudable on these tries. And unlike last year, Maiava cut down his backbreaking habit of tossing boo boos to opponents. All of his contested ball placement figures finished in the green, even if his results failed to pop off the page.
Across 2024, Green regularly challenged contests with his arm. Only 2 SECers saw a higher percentage of throws target tight windows. And in our study, his makeup upticked from 23% to 27%, finishing just outside the money. Some of his past carelessness did pop up occasionally, especially via tossups, but Green overly threw a very catchable ball in this context. Both his Uncatchable% and Accuracy% finished inside the top2, with the latter leading the group by 5 percentage points. Subsequently, all of his results comfortably beat the impact average.
Murphy took plenty of risks attempting to stabilize and spark Duke’s pass game last fall. Throwing deep and into tight confines showed off his arm talent, but also his hubris and general inaccuracies. Just under 29% of his throws were contested, the 2nd-highest mark in this year’s class. Ultimately, Murphy was the only impacter to finish inside the group’s bottom3 in overall Interceptable%, Depth Adjusted Accuracy, and Uncatchable Pass Rate.
Often passing behind the chains and trailing on the scoreboard, Aguilar pressed more than any other QB in our study. Practically, a third of his sample targeted a tight window. No one else had a clip over 29%. And with defenders constantly close by, 39% of his contested tries were altered. Already one to gamble with risky passes, his tunnel vision worsened to the tune of a group-high 11.9% Interceptable Pass Rate across his whole sample. Only one other impacter had a clip in the double-digits. Obviously, Aguilar’s aggressive style is a double-edged sword. And how Heupel and Co. manage it will either make or break the Vols’ fall.
No question Bailey’s freshman campaign was mercurial. But, one of the more promising aspects to his debut was his plus ability to hit targets downfield. He wasn't immune from boo boos. Basically, an eighth of his downfield throws could’ve been picked off. Still, on an above-average vertical spray, CJB’s 51.9% such Accuracy% was top8-worthy, and his 54.4% Adjusted Completion% just missed making the top10. All the while, only about a quarter these tries had no shot at being caught. A potential midrange master in the making, his 16.2% Uncatchable Pass Rate on intermediate targets was the 5th-best in our study. Heartening stuff from a freshman.
Green’s rendition of backyard ball unleashed his creativity as a play maker and helped generate a number of wide open downfield flicks and a score of turnover-worthy plays. But even then, he showed tremendous strides as a downfield dimer. For three-consecutive impact studies, his Deep Accuracy% has improved, peaking at 45.8%. Though his midrange offerings have traditionally been more erratic, only two of his peers bested his 61.8% such clip. The same number can be said about dudes who ranked inside the group’s top7 in both of those areas. Including all games, no returning SEC QB boasts a better downfield on-target rate than his 56.1% figure.
He might not have had a hard slate nor overly sought to stretch the field vertically. But when he pulled the trigger, Hoover’s downfield numbers were unequivocally among the top of the crop. He was 1/8 passers to have all his downfield placement finish above the impact average. No one posted a better such Accuracy% or Adjusted Completion% than Hoover’s 56.9% and 60.7% clips, respectively. Moreover, his 61.2% overall Depth-Adjusted Accuracy% also held the gold medal.
Entering this fall, Leavitt is On3’s most impactful QB. His lethal downfield precision is a big reason why. Often aided by play action, Leavitt is potent and has desirable bang-for-buck. Besides new-Dukie Darian Mensah, he’s the only passer in this year’s study to post a +50% Accuracy% on an above-average downfield makeup. Additionally, that figure of his was top5-worthy. Only a pair of his peers were better at limiting interceptables in this context. Plus, his 59.7% Depth Adjusted Accuracy% was the group’s 2nd-best.
Sellers has traits that can make even the most straight-laced scouts salivate. And against his hardest opponents, his heroics constantly saw him display premium downfield ball placement. Granted, prudence and his own personal gravity luring defenders played a part. Less than a third of his sample’s throws traveled ten-plus yards beyond the line of scrimmage. But Sellers delivered nothing but value in this context. Along with donning a top3 Accuracy% and Depth-Adjusted Accuracy%, no one logged a lower Interceptable Pass Rate than his 3.1%. More risk and verticality could be in cards moving forward, which could ding his stats. Still, peep this effortless bomb (Manning academy).
Arnold was certainly an unlucky passer last year. Along with injuries to his offensive line, Oklahoma’s WR7 was often his go-to target on gamedays. And throwing to reserves overly saw Arnold’s numbers straight up suck. Behind a bottom5 Drop Rate, no one else in our impact study produced worse Success or First Down+TD Rates than his 33.3% and 24.6% clips, respectively. The lack of trust in his pass catchers permeated in him holding onto the ball too long – and subsequently – avoiding downfield throws. Now on the Plains, it’s presumed he’ll evolve into a much more efficient passer. At the very least, his top2 receivers ought to help him post serviceable stats.
Dampier is one of the sport's great improvisers and creators outside of structure. His already sturdy figures would be even better if his targets didn’t fail to catch nearly 15% of his attempts. For instance, on true dropbacks, his Success Rate cracked the crop’s top10 despite a bottom6 Drop Rate. Assuming his new teammates can just have average hands, there’s a legit opportunity to see real gains on their bottomline.
After a statistically sizzling 2023 campaign, Salter’s metrics soured last year. Already a passer with warped down-to-down ball placement, his iffy accuracy upped the ante for his pass catchers. In fact, no impacter suffered from a higher Drop Rate than his 15.1% figure. And expectantly, all of his result stats finished in the red despite his easy G5 slate. Along with wanting a larger spotlight, who could blame him for ditching his old offense for Coach Prime’s pass-happy scheme with more sure-handed receivers?
Iamaleava’s hard throwing style was both impressive to the Good, Ole Fashion Eye Test as well as his receiver’s fingers. Over a seventh of his passes against his hardest opponents resulted in drop. That figure shot up to 24% when isolating throws beyond ten yards downfield. And in pure dropback situations, none of his peers were more prone to flubs. Drops already are undercutting. But for such a vertically-inclined passer, the Vols’ miscues were downright catastrophic. Across the whole season, Iamaleava was 1/3 SEC QBs to accumulate over 500 “drop yards”, per my charting.
But for as mindnumbing as Iamaleava’s results were, Beck was in a class of his own regarding drops. Despite his decent efforts, slowing down speeds, soft tossing, and backshoulders failed to help curb the inconsistent pass catching. Including all games, his 13.2% clip was easily the highest in the SEC. Moreover, his 665 “drop yards” were not only the most in the league by 130 this past fall but also the highest mark I have on record dating back to 2018.
No impacter saw a higher percentage of throws come under pressure or outside the pocket than Pavia. Nearly 36% of his sample came when on the move; no one else produced a figure over 32%. And, with plenty of tries, he put up the group’s 5th-most yards at 382. Either by design or improvising, he overly looked for dump-offs in the flank when working beyond the bookends. His 7.6 average depth of target sits in the bottom8. Still, playing within his means yielded pretty good placement stats. Pavia finished inside the crop’s top7 in Accuracy, Depth Adjusted Accuracy, and Uncatchable Pass Rate.
Though Green made real strides as a passer within structure, he’s still arguably his best self playing backyard ball. In fact, no SECer logged more yards across 2024 outside the pocket than his 664. Long, fast, and dangerous, he’s naturally able to stress opponents by simply taking the snap. In his impact sample, he was twice as likely to throw an explosive pass than an interceptable. And for good measure, his 78.9% Adjusted Completion% cracked the top6.